Jesse Rodriguez vs Sunny Edwards fight breakdown and prediction

Unbeaten champions look to unify in Arizona in the riskiest assignment either man could take

In one of the standout fights in what is turning out to be an excellent end to 2023 for world championship boxing, on Saturday night, December 16th at the Desert Diamond Arena in Arizona, unbeaten flyweight world champions Jesse ‘Bam’ Rodriguez (18-0-0 11KO) and Sunny ‘Showtime’ Edwards (20-0-0 4KO) look to unify their respective WBO and IBF world titles.

This is an outstanding matchup between two young unbeaten fighters, who both would lay legitimate claims to being one of the finest technicians in the lower weight classes, behind the Nicaraguan legend ‘Chocolatito’.

Due to the clear disparity in skill level both have shown over their previous foes, the boxing fraternity is understandably split in their assumptions as to who will wake up on Sunday as the proud owner of two world championship belts. As with most, my opinion on how the fight will unfold has been flip flopping by the day and with each engrossing bit of footage I rewatch of either man.

In Rodriguez, you have somebody who has the speed, reflexes, head movement and footwork of a top-level counter puncher, fused with the ability to apply relentless aggression and knockout power. In terms of his footwork, when opponents apply pressure themselves, he always seems capable of spinning or stepping out of the way to make a new angle for his own savage onslaught. These clever moves have been an ever-present throughout his career, however have been more frequently showcased against fighters that are more flat footed, allowing him to control the rhythm with his superior speed and timing. An example of this would be his breakout performance against Srisaket Sor Rungvisai, which catapulted him from newly crowned world champion and respected prospect to bona fide potential superstar.

In his last outing however, against the admittedly negative and unheralded Mexican Cristian Gonzalez Hernandez, this clever footwork, including his signature step arounds were not quite as prominent, being traded for more traditional and formulaic aggression. It’s definitely not a bad thing to be capable of demonstrating both styles, but it must be said he didn’t look quite the same level of remarkable talent when faced with somebody giving him consistent movement.

Contrasting with this duality of styes, Sunny Edwards is a pure breed counter puncher, so much so that his style would be well placed in an Olympic final on the old point scoring system. That is not a slight on his approach at all, he is a genius at what he does. Although he fights on the backfoot almost exclusively, a ‘Showtime’ showcase is still a vastly entertaining affair, making his opponents miss seemingly with ease, often with hands at his waist, sticking and moving, constantly switching stances, shifting his balance side to side where he can land both fists as a lead straight or perfectly placed back hand, before sliding out of range to either angle. Although his fight tactics are perhaps more predictable than what we have seen from Rodriguez before, the unbeaten Texan may find as 20 have before him, that finding a way to counteract them is seemingly impossible.

One fight that taught us about an additional wrinkle in Edwards repertoire was his decision win against the hard punching slugger Felix Alvarado in his third championship defence, where we saw him fight opt to exchange on the inside more than ever before. Here Edwards was often positioned with his back against the ropes and under heavy artillery, uncharacteristically electing to ride shots in close and even find homes for his own sneaky counters and combinations in between.

Although Edwards will likely claim he sat on the ropes against Alvarado in order to showcase another string to his bow, cynics might say that this fight showed if you are relentless enough with your pressure, over a 12 round distance you will have sustained periods on the inside. If Alvarado was capable of earning this time, ‘Bam’ will certainly be able to do so, bearing in mind his power and aggression has seen him score stoppage victories over elite opposition up at super flyweight. Pair this with Edward’s comparative lack of power himself, and you start to see why some boxing experts are predicting victory for the skilful southpaw. There are no two ways about it, with his fusion of footwork, speed, technique and aggression, Rodriguez has a skillset like no other fighter Edwards has faced before.

For me, the big three questions which will prove pivotal in determining Saturday nights outcome, are can ‘Bam’ figure out the bewildering puzzle of Edward’s style to the point where most of the fight is fought at close range? In spite of Edwards movement, will Rodriguez just be able to walk through his shots to reign in his own, more spiteful punches? And if and when ‘Bam’ does get close, will Edwards be capable of holding his own as he did vs Alvarado?

In terms of a definitive prediction, I do see Rodriguez struggling to piece together the puzzle of Edwards style, likely taking him several rounds to catch on to the rhythm and start to pin him down, by which point the switch-hitting Englishman may have built up a several point lead. Even if Edwards may not have the pop to hurt ‘Bam’, this has not proved an issue so far in his five 12 round world championship victories, so I just don’t see someone miraculously being able to walk him down now, in spite of ‘Bam’s’ immense quality. As the fight goes on, I see Rodriguez warming into things and having sustained periods of success, however I think people are underestimating Edward’s ability on the inside. So long as he can pick and choose his moments to stay in the pocket and get back on his bike, it should still be a tightly fought contest down the stretch. In the final few stanzas it may turn into more of a dog fight, where both fighters are forced to try and find a new level of performance due to the pedigree that they are sharing the ring with. Come the sound of the final bell, I believe Edwards may well have banked enough rounds early to be given the nod in a razor thin decision victory.

Whatever your disposition on who will come out on top, one thing for sure is boxing fans are soon to be served up one of the most mouthwatering blends of styles we have seen this year. Even with the bizarre omission of the ring magazine belt, come the end of Saturday night there will be no doubt as to who is the dominant force in the flyweight division.

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